I think the trial design is carefully designed to succeed, they have been extremely selective with the cohort. The Ph3 is where I think things will break down as they will need to broaden the eligibility criteria. I am also skeptical if they can go straight to a Phase 3 after the current Phase 2.
My key issues with the current Ph2 trial:
- US site only - Small cohort size - Complex dosing requirement - Excludes prior dengue exposure or vaccination
Very early days for ILA - if they can continue to gather more and more evidence and show efficacy in more broad populations, the value of the IP only increases. The less risky play here would be to continue buying as the drug continues to show more and more efficacy across wider demographics.
But worth a punt at these prices..
ILA Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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