Following the recent FOI release, it is evident that the Government has been progressing the PEP11 decision since April 2024. King changed to Husic, the Department moved forward by preparing a Ministerial Briefing, and the Joint Authority has now released it's preliminary view. These actions only occur if the green light has been given to make the decision, at last we are underway. I see three distinct events, one of which will IMO deliver us our well deserved NOPTA approval and set the stage for Seablue-1 to finally be drilled.
Window 1 - The procedural fairness response - December 2024
Asset Energy will provide it's response to Minister Husic's concerns no later than 15/11/24. Shortly after Parliament rests in late November, I expect the PEP11 decision to be announced. At this point, Husic intends to refuse, that is evident. But, Asset has one last chance to change his mind. To do that, Asset must alleviate all his concerns in a manner that compels Husic to reverse his preliminary view. This is possible because once DISR receive Asset's response, it will be re-run past the DISR legal team, and possibly the AGS, who will update their risk analysis/legal advice on the option of refusal. If this advice changes, and the risk of refusal is too great, then Husic may have no choice but to reluctantly approve the application.
Window 2 - Post Election - May 2025
Assuming Husic opts to refuse, Asset will head straight back to court. The court will not have decided by the time the election is run. It is possible that it will be the Coalition in power by May 2025 and it will be the new Resources Minister who decides whether to fight Asset in court over Husic's ill considered decision. Given Resources is a National Party portfolio, and given the Nationals are pro-gas, and given the LNP energy policy hinges on increased gas supply, and given there are no woke NSW MP's in the Coalition leadership (all Queenslanders), the LNP will waste no time in settling the court case with an undertaking to approve PEP11.
Window 3 - Court Case - August 2025
Assuming Husic opts to refuse, and assuming Labor retain power, then we will have our day in court. We will fight Husic based on the Pathfinder precedent, and we will win.
So, NO perhaps there isn't too long to wait, or MAYBE we have to wait a little longer, or YES the wait will be a while, but we will get our approval IMO.
JMO. Not advice. DYOR. GLTAH.
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