General Discussion AGY, page-24453

I see some common mistakes you're making here, and I guess you'll just need experience to teach you the necessary lessons.

Of course something being priced in is not binary, and the scale doesn't go from 0 to 100. It goes from negative infinity (there is no limit to how high the price can go and thus how wrong the market can be in the entirely wrong direction) to well above 100 (hypothetically a price can go to zero it commonly overshoots bearish expectations). We also need a reference point to calculate from, for example, in this case, we might say that 'success' would mean a share price of 30c in, say, 5 years and 'failure' means 0 in five years so a share price of 3c now means 90% of the bear scenario is priced in? I certainly wouldn't ever use any calculations like this, at least in the type of scenario AGY is in - how are you defining base value, how do you define what is being priced in, and how do you calculate how much that is worth, even as a ballpark estimate? There are better ways to calculate things in this situation IMO.

Anyway, I think you're being very optimistic about the next CR only dropping the price to 2.4c, but even if you were correct, how long will it drop before the next one and what figure will the next one drop the price to? Even in best case scenario this thing isn't going to rally any time soon due to company-specific developments. But, let's say you're right. What's the difference between 3c and 2.4c? That would be 20%. I know I'd like to make 20% on my money and I sure as heck don't want to have my money tied up for the privilege of losing 20% on it.

You're making a common mistake with price anchoring. You paid a certain amount, the price was previously a certain amount, it has already fallen so far so surely it won't go much lower. This thinking burns so many people.

Another mistake you're making is comparing AGY (an apple) to another company (an orange). Each company is an individual company and what happens to one doesn't necessarily apply to another. Unless AGY is in the same industry at the same time and has comparable metrics, without any significant differences you need to take into account, the comparison isn't particularly valid. The only thing of value AGY has is environmental permits. The land is worth nothing (literally, they picked up more of it for free because no one else wanted it). Their plants are worth whatever is salvageable as scrap. Ponds can be built by anyone who wants them, that's not such a big deal, and okay, throw in the salable product they have. The structure of the company especially the relationship with Puna is a big obstacle to a takeover, so it's very unlikely. And of course $2 is just a silly figure. To put a relevant evaluation of how much the prospect of a takeover is worth as a shareholder, ask yourself what a realistic price is, what the chance of it happening is, and when it might happen. I'd obviously say the chance of it happening is very low and the price would be lower than the current price - don't forget that anyone playing takeover games wants the lowest price possible so they play various tricks to drop the price and wait for the time with the lowest price and worst sentiment.