let the games begin!, page-66

Micheal your making a lot of assumptions about what im up to and what i know and dont. But i welcome your non adversarial dialogue.

Yes i am well aware there are many many many factors controlable and uncontrolable that make up risk.
Clearly though as we have seen with a company which has a decent balamce sheet and what seems like a decent managment like TXN, its two biggest determining factors of its success going forward from here is its acerage characterisitc (whether they will be producing) and whether the personal and eqiupment they are using can do the job. And what im expressing is that without those two coming good the company will falter.

Right now we dont know whether they are good or not. We need to see TRRC data to back up what they are reporting as IP's and we need to see 30 and 60 day flows to substantiate the quality of the wells.

On most other threads in particular AZZ your No1 Poster on TXN tends to repeatedly say IP's and reported IP's cannot be trusted. And on that 1 point i totally agree with him.

Given that there are still massive risks to be removed.
As you say the upside is huge, if they can get $40M EBIT this thing will be a multibagger. But right now honestly its got absolutely nothing yet to prove its not another AZZ. IT also has nothing to say its not the next AUT. After all AZZ had brilliant IP's great broker reccomendations and what looked like fantastic acerage with great flows from neighbouring wells.

Your No1 poster used to rave on about how over priced AZZ was when he was in ADI with an mcap of $15M and AZZ was worth $120M.
But right now honestly TXN is in the exact same position as AZZ was when agent used to bag it. Same price, same mcap, same Ip's.

Thats my point - be warned its early days and right now TXN is priced for partial success. Not priced anything liek the others where when they where so early in thier development.

Your No1 poster may say to ignore me, but ive accurately predicted AUT since 25c and SEA since 11c. All my price targets which i was initially scorned for being too optimistic have been surpassed. Both now up over 700%, while your no1 poster told us all the EFS was too high risk, that oil was going down when he exited AUT at the exact wrong time. He was so wrong. Much later only revealing he had exited due to wifes work situation.

So yes he is brilliant with his knowledge of the play but others here can definitely add value to the dialogue that he lacks.