afp, your chart is revealing to say the least. that is one very sharp eye you have for not just patterns but recognition of patterns. i suspect we're exactly where you asked or suggested we might be, circa the run up to 1929, not in the period after. to offer some explanation for why i say this, allow me to provide a link to standard chartered bank's report on super cycles.
it is entitled 'the super cycle report' and can be had here: http://www.standardchartered.com/media-centre/press-releases/2010/documents/20101115/The_Super-cycle_Report.pdf
china is the kicker, but don't discount india. i live in tokyo and am in china pretty much every other day. for the past 18 years, up to a year ago, the same was true but for india. every other day. chindia is not about to go backwards. don't take my word for it. get out of your cottage and go visit. take up residence and see for yourself the power of what a few billion people sucking up resources can and will do for resources. as for '2010 was a commodity year' and now 2011 won't be, well, i respond with some experience to say 'we have only seen the beginning'. which is why i like andrew from perth's chart. it rings a very loud bell that sc is ringing.
i don't know much but i do know the indians and the chinese (which mirror all of asia, and the developing world - africa - now that we have the internet, logistics of transport and wto linkages...long story...let's get back to the original) are not about to sink. flounder, i hear you ask, which would be enough to sink australia? flounder, perhaps, should the us begin to tank, but not sink australia. australia is tied to the china. at least for another century. sell it, or china, or india, or commodities, which both countries and more all need desperately, at your peril and financial loss.
'oh but dave, you're so wrong.'
ok. fine. which one of the excellent chartists we have here - lord volt, robbbb, haspete, andrew from perth et al, even hedgejob, the doom merchant, can say he's not been proven wrong in his analysis of charts? who, now be honest, saw what was about to happen to meo? don't go saying that's a speccy o&g which doesn't count. it does. as do many other charted coy's that failed but were called bulls, or raced away but were thought to be sinking boats.
all this talk about the end is nigh would actually be quite entertaining if not for the reality of losses. buy, buy, buy is what i would urge you to do. just buy carefully. think super cycle. doubt it? go to india. china. brazil. russia. vietnam. singapore. just get out of australia for a while, away from the 'developed' world and open your eyes.
(20min delay)