After owning and following BTU for the last 12 mths and talking with my Broker who is also heavily into it , we both feel it is still way under valued. Here are my figures for readers comment.
Production should start Q4 this year and ramp up to approx 5mtpa in 3 - 4 years. They will produce high quality coking coal which should sell for $300 tonne ( conservatively after the recent floods ) at a cost price of around $100 per tonne .
Therefore 5 million tpa at $200 a tonne profit gives an annual profit of $1 billion. On a conservative PE of 10 we have BTU valued at $10 billion. Currently BTU is a $500 million company. Of course there are start up costs etc, so allowing for another placement of 400 million shares to fund the start up BTU would have a billion shares and no debt. In my view if condition are the same or better BTU should be around $10 per share in a few years. I think when approvals are in place this stock will move quickly much like CPL and $1 will be long gone. Adding to this BTU should be added to the ASX 200 in the next re rating which will put it on the radar with a lot of funds and brokers. With a market cap of $500 mill it is more than twice the cap of Hastie Group which is 200th at the moment. Just my 2 cents and would appreciate any views.
cheers gmc
BTU Price at posting:
88.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
