General Thoughts, page-7308

Building on the recent technical shares on the recent SP journey by Drswing, here’s some summarised perspective. Leading into the release of the Seismic Licence being issued by NAMCOR the SP hovered around $0.014 to $0.016 for roughly 3 to 4 months. There was 'doom and gloom' in a lot of instances on HC (whether founded or not) leading up to 21/11/24 when the highly likely news broke. Soon after the SP hits a short-term high of $0.022 on 12/12/24.

The current situation is not all that dissimilar on the SP and real world timelines to what was encountered over the mid to late ’24 period when the inevitable bounce in the SP occurred. The SP dropping back now may be considered by some as frustrating but it is no surprise for a range of different reasons (some we may or may not know of) and there is nothing to suggest that on WDS farm-in news (which most are expecting) that the SP doesn’t bounce again. Whether future buyers would have paid possibly ‘inflated’ prices if say the SP was at $0.02 compared to the current $0.015ish prior to news of the WDS farm-in is purely speculative/hypothetical. So at this juncture has much been lost? Buyers are still going to speculate their perceived value based on when the key milestones for PCL are reached.

PCL released progress information at the late November ’24 AGM. That wasn’t even two months ago. With Xmas / NY office shut downs etc actual ‘work’ time is always reduced over this period. So its possible to suggest that there may have only been another 4-6 weeks of time spent progressing the Seismic analysis, which to me doesn’t sound like a lot of additional time given the magnitude of the job at hand as suggested by PCL and the fact it said more ‘months’ were necessary.

PCL giving a progress update based on 4-6 weeks work since the AGM to say not much, wouldn’t achieve anything in the short term. Perhaps if the situation hasn’t changed in another 3 months time it may be reasonable to ask questions based on what was forecasted at the AGM. However, this still wouldn’t necessarily be a long period of time in any event.

Recent Shell and Chevron news is obviously outside PCL’s control and in light of the time that has passed from the AGM, I see nothing to suggest that PCL doesn’t remain in control of its own destiny (obviously WDS has a say in this as well, which a positive decision is what PCL wants anyway). The SP could have decreased from these types of news regardless of when they occurred. Maybe the timing wasn’t great in the short term but again there’s not much anybody can do about this.

I see the SP having decreased in the last two weeks as not unexpected. Outside WDS farm-in or PCL releasing their data analysis outcomes (which might not happen anyway), based on recent news in the Orange Basin, the SP decreases may turn out to have little impact at all on the SP moving forward and hopefully has resulted in the sellers unnecessarily ‘jumping at shadows’, which for some could turn out to be advantageous.

Some holders that are selling based on the current SP have placed blame on PCL management. Could this turn out to be premature or as time goes by could it turn out to be a blessing for them, but will they retract their blame? I personally don’t mind situations like this seeing the SP decrease, which this current move could be for a few months. Consider it an opportunity, if you have the ‘stones’, to stay the course. Whether the SP is $0.005 higher at this point of time is not going to make WDS’s decision or PCL’s analysis happen any faster. Stay positive and enjoy the journey.