a few facts instead of disinformation, page-23

re: informed opinion instead of disinformation Syringe,
You're so confused about PHY, about the process that leads to a takeover, about the role of brokers, and about the market in general, that it is impossible to set you straight in one post. And your claim that you are a "successful investor" really made me laugh. Thanks for writing that :)

Jokes aside, let me just say something about your comments on carbon trading, which may also be of interest to others:

PHY will likely start generating carbon credit income in a year or so. The carbon credit income will be modest to begin, but will steadily rise until 2008. Then, from 2008-12 the carbon credit income will soar.

2008 is significant for three reasons. First, it is the year that PHY will have completed a 'critical mass' of carbon credit generating projects. Second, 2008 is the year that the first commitment period (2008-2012) begins for Kyoto. So projects that are going to qualify under the Kyoto scheme must be registered by 2008. Third, with no new CDM projects being allowed after 2008, and with carbon demand rising, there will almost certainly be a large spike at this time in the market price for carbon credits (more demand, less supply). Presently, forward contracts are selling for between 7-9 euros per tonne. From 2008, the going price could easily be 3 or 4 times this figure.

So, while carbon credit revenue will be slow starting, it is likely to explode from 2008. There will be an increasing amount of merger and acquisition activity in the renewable sector over the next few years as smart investors position themselves for 2008. This is what PHY's bidders are presently trying to do.

You are wrong to imply that carbon trading will simply end in 2012. 2012 is merely the end of the FIRST comittment period. Kyoto-signed countries plan to introduce more robust carbon reduction targets after this date. While the Bush White House is stalling for time, every other country in the world (including, I'm happy to say, Australia, and including many US states) is pushing to begin discussions for the SECOND commitment period later this year or early next year.

You are also wrong to suggest that the US is not moving on carbon trading. A large number of US states (including California) are already moving independantly of the White House to introduce carbon trading.

Re Australia:
Even if Aust stays out of carbon trading, PHY will still be able to generate significant carbon credit income from its overseas projects. However, it is looks increasingly likely that Aust (even under Howard) will move to introduce some kind of carbon trading scheme in the medium term. I say this because Japan has indicated that it plans to introduce some form of carbon taxation in the medium term (I don't have the dates ready to hand), and Aust carbon intensive exporters to Japan will need to purchase carbon credits if they want to avoid hefty taxes making their products uncompetitive in relation to Kyoto-signed exporters (such as Canada). This will create firm demand for carbon credits within Australia, since purely Aust companies will not be able to buy credits on the European exchange.

BHP Billiton (its UK arm) has already started to buy forward carbon credits on the European market, and has shown strong enthusiasm for the European scheme. I think where BHP is leading, other Aust miners/exporters will follow.

I find it difficult to imagine the Howard govt ignoring the demands of Australia's major carbon intensive exporters.