Wouldn’t take much to see $50 at this rate => 40c. Trading in the 30s seems to be a reasonable target by Easter.
A$1bn market cap isn’t a big ask for a highly experienced, strongly backed near term producer with gov support sitting on one of the largest undeveloped gas basins in the world on the eve of an energy crisis.
”Tamboran has the potential to become one of the largest independent gas producers globally, leveraging the tightening supply in the Australian gas market and strong pricing dynamics in Asian LNG markets.
TBN’s assets have huge gas potential (~150tcf or >25bnboe of net recoverable prospective resources) in one of the most promising shale gas basins globally, with characteristics that match the best shale gas wells in the US.
By 2030, from only Phase 1 and 2 plateau production, TBN’s gross production will be 8% of Australia’s current natural gas production.
Led by an experienced management team with US shale expertise, the company is well-equipped to deliver on its strategy. We have a risked NAV of US$66/sh or A$0.48/sh providing ~3.4x upside to the current share price.
Valuation: ~240% upside to risked NAV of US$66/sh or A$0.48/sh
We continue to see the majority of TBN’s value in the development of Phase 1 and 2 which on an unrisked basis has a NAV of US$130/sh or A$0.96/sh.
However, we believe that there is substantial upside from Phase 3 as well as development of TBN’s other licences.
Net to TBN Phase 1 should generate >US$30mm in EBITDA at plateau and Phase 2 ~US$600mm by 2029.
At an NPV of US$0.25/mcf, the current share price is discounting only 300bcf of net resource.”
Hannam, November 2024
TBN Price at posting:
16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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