EV could be US$10bn+ given likely growth trajectory if we hit US$600m EBITDA by then. Debt/equity mix who knows but say 30/70. And how much existing equity vs future - dunno but if share price starts to reflect upside then dilution can be kept within reasonable boundaries. 50/50?
So see through total val of A$5bn+ for current holders should be possible. Would be happy with $1bn for now.
All highly speculative at this stage and it’s likely to be volatile. Who’s gonna pay for a big fat pipeline is one of the biggest questions. And all the required infrastructure. A full blown energy crisis would kick start that eg Germany.
Given that Canberra has ignored the looming problem for so long until it’s right in front of their noses, it’s looks like it’s not far away now. One or two more Victorian/ACT winters and the odd failing coal plant should do it. Meanwhile, mad politicians are trying to tell our energy market operator how to avoid reality. 82% renewables is a made up Canberra number that is impossible to hit https://www.cis.org.au/commentary/opinion/why-im-standing-up-to-aemos-integrated-system-plan/
The longer they avoid fixing the problem, the faster Beetaloo will be connected to the market. Perfect timing.
All in all, a multi-bagger from these levels seems like a fairly strong chance but it won’t be a straight line. Never is.
But first we need the next set of flow rates. With two wells on the go and no shortage of expertise and equipment, Shock ‘n Awe by Easter is highly likely. Then the wheels can start turning.
TBN Price at posting:
16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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