This is my second week here of this phase. I have survived the first week - for now. Feels like the first week in a new job thing.
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From a weekly perspective, decent drop from 28.5 to 26, nearly 10%. Volumes usual, looking at narrow window of last few weeks.
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So what was happening this week? I feel its testing the levels. Stock price when its going up, like for MTM in last couple of months, it comes with lot of doubts as well. Is the rise genuine? Is it a p&d like before? And so on. Reason being, as I wrote last week, its very difficult to quantify what should be a market as of today. Those with hope and potential think much bigger. Others, think its p&d or has simply gone ahead of itself, so needs to come down. We don't know what is right. For me, I follow price action. I don't assume anything.
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So why did we drop big - made lower high and lower lows - is that not bearish? I was watching last week play around 30. I read and follow charts to certain extent, but more into trading patterns. So it reached 30, and didn't cross 30.5. Made a lower high. Then I was watching whether 24.5 will hold. It dropped below to 22.5 and made a lower low. So does that mean, that those who follow charts, like blindly, see this is a big bearish set up? Possibly, those who follow charts rigidly may have a view. But what we are talking odd, not certainity. If it was certainity, all those charts would have made billionaires of everyone. Many now peddle HC to earn some brownie points. Some are successful. Just shows, one indicator is not enough. That's my thought, I could be wrong, and have been wrong before. Just need to be more right than wrong to be in front, not get everything right.
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Yesterday I wrote that even though it fell for the week, I felt we did all right. Why was that? Reason being, I follow trading patterns. First rise was to 19, drop to 14.5. Then rise to 22, drop to 13.5 (lower low), then rise to 24, drop 21, then 28 to 21.5, 30.5 to 24.5, now 30 to 22.5. so not always it has kept the highs and lows. but still its at 26 from 7.8 couple of months back. Just around 15% low from its 52 week high. So I feel its just playing the game, when a re-rate happens. Most recently it has been LRV, rising from 8c over 6 months bag to 80c recently, its numbers too are littered with those types of ups and downs. So nothing unusual, I feel at this stage.
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Personally, I wrote last week that I had bought, average 26. We closed at 28.5 last week, so I was looking good. Then it dropped to 22.5. What should I do? I felt it has legs. I was buying. I took a risk. Not very big, but added a fair few. My average now is around 25. So not much far away from where we are. But I have a bigger holding now. At this stage, I feel I will continue to buy, unless I feel a big drop is looming, or some bad news. I will get out immediately, even if I have to take a decent hair cut. That's my play. Its not an easy stock to play. There are risks. I am happy to be holding and adding at this stage, my risk, but please check your risk reward.
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So what may happen next week? Any news will certainly provide direction. Otherwise, the next big landmark is in Feb, design confirmation. Many seem to be happy to join. A new big buyer would certainly help. I feel if we can hold this level around 25, there may be another attempt towards 30 next week. I am holding big, and slightly biased, so I could be wrong, so please dyor. All the best.
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