Vertigo,
Im not pulling numbers out of the air.
Im pulling numbers from 5 years of experience in this sector with particular focus on the Brown Coal sector.
Again, I'm starting to think your mind is clouded by your own preconceptions. What makes you think from what I have said that I am saying that ESI makes it at the end-user.
Absurd. If you knew how impossible that is then you wouldnt even have seen it as an alternative!!! You cant ship massive quantities of brown coal AND why would you. Its full of water. The water that you dont want to ship or burn. Anyway, just to be clear. In my opinion, ESI will always build their plants at the mine site...and again....it just so happens that most of these mines sites with the appropriate mining infratsructure in place also happen to have a brown coal power station.
I was asked about 2 years ago as to whether I would look at financing a bid for BM mines - I passed up on it because of what I saw as the development hurdles, being:
1) Unlikely Govt will issue new licence for mining particularly for brown coal
2) Urban encroachment upon the mining zone will likely win out in a planning battle.
3) May not be feasible given the mix of no existing mining infrastructure, rail development requirements and port limitations.
4) Green influence can disrupt voting flow.
Obviously it was my opinion at the time and people may argue that things have changed. I dont think they have changed enough and maybe they will in 5-10years.
I cant speak for ESI but I think for anyone with a Borwn Coal technology, Latrobe Valley is Mecca. You simply have to play in Australia's biggest open cut brown coal mine. It is a world class asset. BM is not even a viable mine yet.
Again, all of this is my opinion only.
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