Top post there Sammy,
I like the way you've been conservative with the figures. Sappes, for example, as you point out, was valued by the receivers when gold was way below where it is now, at 50m. It'd have to be worth a lot more now, or saleable at that price as a minimum for a quick turnaround.
Further, Sage is aiming for 500m + 25% retained equity on Marampa, which would then be valued in total at 666m. You've used 400m, which is probably closer to the mark, but you never know your luck.
An EV of 92m or so is outrageous, which is why I can get hot under the collar over Mayoko and still be absolutely comfortable in this one being a multi bagger for me. It's well on the way already and I'd be a goat to sell now. Cut short the losses but let the profits run and all that.
The market is such a funny beast at times. So many stocks have huge MC's with only one project. I rode the run on DMM ages ago but locked in profits. Massive high grade resource, existing infrastructure and all the boxes ticked...except manangement in the final throws. Thank goodness I bailed on its run. When the SP was high, DMM management didn't raise funds but waited until Sage came a knocking when the SP had crashed during the GFC and ultimately gave it to him for a tiny fraction of what it will become. When TS comes a knocking to lend a hand, don't be scared...be very very afraid lol.
For mine, it's a little counterintuitive that a company that has risk spread across commodities, geography and investments is discounted, whereas if something goes wrong in the one trick pony types, they're sunk. CFE still has exposure to the huge revenues and moreso since deciding to retain equity in projects sold but can well afford to have a project go pear shaped for whatever reason and be safe in the knowledge that other profits will dwarf any shortfall.
To quote the addage for the umpteenth time, "the market is a voting machine in the short term but a weighing machine in the long term".
BTW, I was a little worried about Leichhardt and the QLD floods. When I googled Mt Isa, it seems they're not affected.
BTW mark II, Leichhardt has to be worth more than 20m. Production capacity of 9 thousand tpa, giving gross revenue of around 87pa. CFE own all the plant. If even half of that is profit, with copper as high as it is, it has to be worth more.
All up, things are looking pretty damn good.
Peter
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Mkt cap ! $12.73M |
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