Ann: Positive ATH434 Phase 2 Results Led By Clinical Efficacy, page-200

Our attention turns to the NASDAQ tonight to see how our American investors view today’s announcement. If you are wanting to buy back into ATH close to, or even below 1 cent, then consider the following.

Our American friends were not as impressed with the -202 results 6 months ago as we Australian investors (ATHE closed a reasonable margin below what ATH did)

Most of us armchair experts here on Hotcopper viewed the -202 results as an excellent guide to how the -201 results were going to readout

Therefore, as far as i’m concerned, it is quite reasonable to expect that ATHE will finish trading tonight no higher than the equivalent ATH closing price today (1.8 cents)

A CR is due soon, Dr Stamler is on record as saying one will be needed after the results of the -201 trial were released. CR usually apply a discount, which means a share price drop, not necessarily to the CR price, but a drop all the same

The -201 trial results today were excellent, but in my view, a phase
3 trial will be required. A much larger trial will be needed. The main reason being that the 77 patients in the Phase 2 trial were spread over 3 cohorts, placebo, 50mg and 75mg. The 50mg dose appeared to work best, so a Phase 3 trial will need to be appropriately designed to give the patients and trial the best chance of success. This brings risks, the main risk being interpreting the Phase 2 data correctly, and designing a Phase 3 trial correctly. And a phase 3 trial takes time and money. A second CR may be required.

So, a CR, maybe 2, time (2 years or more) for “sophisticated and professional investors” to work their magic, and before you know it, the share price is hovering near or below 1 cent.

One thing that will put a spanner in the works of the above theory is a partnership. A partnership will see the share price appreciate, obviously.