real value

hi guys,

just crunching some numbers and wondering what other's thoughts are on the likely financial position of ext in the future and its real value

currently, they have about 240m shares on issue for $9.30 giving them a MC of almost 2.3bn

i read from memory that capex is just under 1bn

so, i have assumed that ext will make a placement to one or several of their major SH..rio, itochu, kalahri?? im not sure

but in this case i have assumed 20% from one at about 10.50ps

this will generate 250m in funds at a small cost of 24m shares

increasing the register to 265m and probably driving the SP back to recent highs of $11/12

from here, ext is assumed to offer a rights issue to current and soph investors, perhaps raising another 450m for arounf $10 ps

creating another 45m shares...taking the total to about 310m

this will leave them with approx 700m cash, the remaining can be sort out from the financial inst


so with 310m shares on issue, at $10, this is a MC of 3.1bn.....800m more than its current value..but guranteed debt funding and project construction could warrant this added value


now to some likely performance financials

15m lb pa at about $80/lb is 1.2bn revenue
opex estimated at 350m
other costs perhaps 50m
financing (300m/15years+interest)-50m

ebitda=750m

after tax, depn amort ect... plus maintenance costs and exploration ect...

probably looking at around 200-400m

with 300m shares..this is 66c-1.30ps earnings

so, with a p/e of 15, this could lead to a SP of 9.90-19.95

thats a large range, but further analysis from others may very well define this, appreciate added comments