If we assume that oil is expectedted to decay exponentially toward a constant. Hence the equation of the flow rate could be approximated by:
Flow (t) = fo x exp ^ -(rt) + co
fo is a constant, t is time in days, r is the decay rate, co is the constant flow rate,
Before getting into intergrals here is what I assumed (all figures stated in txn share):
In Oct Txn produced an average of 108 boepd. 19/01: txn produces 600 boepd Since then the only additions were Nambucca: 10boepd And efs implying an efs rate of 482boepd.
However, announcement 17/01: efs AVERAGE rate over 30 days was 403boepd, from an initial 780 boepd.
Therefore if txn is currently producing above its average 30 day rate, in my opinion the operators are already beginning to optimize the flow rates.
Obviously with the 60 day flow rate, and average it will be even easier to approximate a curve and just how good this well is.
Disclaimer: the above represents my opinion only and should not be used as the basis to any investment or financial decision. Always conduct your own due diligence first.
TXN Price at posting:
70.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
