Here are some of the more conservative assumptions CS used:
- has assumed a HCC price of FY13 177, FY14 170, FY15 170, which is way below the recent broker upgrades - this is a big valuation driver
- has not included any premium over the HCC price, even though it is in the Stemcor contract - this is a big valuation driver
- assumes only 2mt of production rather than stepping up to 4mt in 2016ish - this is a big valuation driver
- resources are too low ie he does not include the Eastern Resources assets ie he is at 60-90mt, whereas he should be at 120-150mt - this is a big valuation driver, but backended
- has delayed coal production by 6-9 months - small
BTU Price at posting:
$1.05 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held