short term target, page-18

So here is the aftermath:



The move from 1.0250 down to 0.98 has corrected all the way up to the 61.8% last night, and is plummeting down down down.

Currently at 0.9940-60.

Price action suggests more bearish than bullish at this stage. (is this just me though? I say that because of a) the steep declines from 1.0250 and through fib levels like a hot knife through butter, and b) the respect of fib levels in the correction back up, and c) the sharp fall from 61.8% today as expected)

If we backtrack a bit, there was in fact a nice Monday gap up on January 3rd, which would have been the ultimate short... unfortunately I just watched that one...

I'm glad I did just watch however, as there were many times that week when I would have attempted to pick the bottom and go long - would have lost on all of them.



The 8 hour chart above (fibs not shown) show the New Year fall unwound the previous week's action in just 2 days.


Zooming in a bit:



There is a trend line on the 4hr which also suggests 0.9900 as the first stop on the corrective express. If I am in front of my computer tonight and see big EUR/GBP/AUD momentum down, I would exit there.





And finally the first piece of analysis for tonight, a 5min chart showing today's falls so far and fib levels for possible short entries this evening.

I expect consolidation of today's move first of all. I would expect 1.0030 to be the maximum for the bearish view to still be valid, as it was an important support/resistance level - and lo and behold, look at that - it is the 61.8% level. My big limit order to short will be there tonight. Smaller shorts with stops above 1.0030 at the other levels. I wouldn't expect 1.0080 to be re-tested.

And my forex lesson for the day - don't bet the house on any of this actually working...!

:)