This I think is where it becomes complicated. The current price of graphite is not enough to attract investments into that metal or warrant replacement. If tariffs of 920% are required (as per North American producers), will that be enough to push for alternatives?
A while ago I guesstimated the price difference for an EV to be between ~$24 and $220 if those producers got their way with tariffs and if the price rise was enough to encourage investment. It appeared to put costs for graphite on par with Lithium. Read this post to find out where those numbers come from: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/77342550/single
I believe the price difference between synthetic and natural is negligible and that has enabled synthetic to flourish in Chinese batteries along with some other specification type advantages.
This was the info that prompted me to look at cost impacts post 920% tariffs. I have no idea how accurate the below is but took it at face value also assumed the 920% rise reflects the price western producers need to justify investment in graphite.
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