It is a fantastic company with 50% of revenue going into the bottom line, and the revenue is growing strongly. But is currently trading at ~150x revenue. What does this mean? Given that it has 9% market share, and if it achieves the improbable and absolute dominance of this market at a 90% market share, its revenue will go up by 10x. At that point, the investor is left with a very profitable, but barely growing business at 2-3% pa. Assume at that point 70% of revenue becomes the bottom line, which is the maximum possible, then the PE will be 150x/10/0.7=21.4, which is about right for a very profitable but slow growing business in a relatively low interest rate environment. At its growth rate of ~30%pa, it takes about 8 years to grow 10x. So given today's price implies a PE of ~21 in 8 years under the most optimistic assumptions, the investor will get nothing for 8 years.
This simple math illustrates how a most excellent business can become absurdly valued. If the investor wants to get 10%pa for his risk for sitting 8 years on it, then under the best assumptions the share price must more than halve today to deliver the 10% return for the next 8 years. Anything less optimistic than the above assumptions will decimate the share price in those intervening 8 years despite the company being a fantastic business.
This is just some rational illustrations for this super-expensive stock. Don't take this as a given. I am not an advisor. Do your own analysis of the future scenarios and draw your own conclusions. I have followed this stock since its listing. It was one of the great success stories in the health technology space. I am only highlighting the current valuation issue. Other than that, I absolutely admire the company's management for building this incredible business.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- PME
- Ann: HY25 Results Presentation
PME
pro medicus limited
Add to My Watchlist
3.08%
!
$270.50

Ann: HY25 Results Presentation, page-8
Featured News
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
|
|||||
Last
$270.50 |
Change
-8.600(3.08%) |
Mkt cap ! $28.25B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$280.60 | $280.77 | $267.13 | $52.46M | 193.9K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5 | $269.50 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$270.58 | 599 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5 | 269.500 |
1 | 11 | 267.510 |
1 | 200 | 267.430 |
4 | 61 | 267.000 |
1 | 100 | 266.660 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
279.750 | 280 | 1 |
280.000 | 20 | 1 |
280.200 | 1200 | 1 |
280.800 | 100 | 1 |
282.000 | 4200 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 13/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
PME (ASX) Chart |