"I notice that, across recent times, the CAGR for the EPS has been about 7% and, although the growth rate (EPS) across the reported half yearly periods was much better, the growth for this reported half compared to the second half of 2024 was closer to about 5%. "
Comparing DH24 EPS with JH24 EPS is not overly meaningful, I'm afraid.
Beware the pitfalls of reading anything into sequential (i.e., one half vs immediately preceding half) due to the seasonality in FID's earnings: June-half years are always the strongest (due to recognition of certain Revenue items, such as performance fees).
June Half - Dec Half UNPAT averages 53%:47%, so Dec half-year growth on preceding June half-year (green bars) is always muted, compared to the stronger growth when looking at June halves vs preceding Dec halves (blue bars), as can be seen below:
Far more instructive, I believe, is to analyse growth on previous corresponding periods which, apart from the wealth management industry re-set between 2021 and 2023 in the wake of the Hayne Royal Commission, has historically trotted along at a cheerful pace averaging in the mid-to high teens:
I feel that's the sort of underlying organic growth rate which should inform the P/E multiple.
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