If we don't ignore the value of the piggyback options, then under the Black-Scholes (B&S) assumptions, with σ ∈ [70%, 100%], σ_LO=σ_PBO=σ, μ_LO=μ_PBO=r=3.80%, OP=$0.18, and N=280,000:
- If PAR's share price was at $1.50 tomorrow, PAROA's B&S price would be in the range [$1.34, $1.48] (σ_LO=σ_PBO ∈ [70%, 100%]), i.e. a $326K - $364K gain.
- If PAR's share price was at $1.50 in a year's time, PAROA's B&S price would be in the range [$1.25, $1.32] (σ_PBO ∈ [70%, 100%]), i.e. a $299K - $320K gain.
- To break-even, PAR's share price in a year's time would need to be in the range [$0.68, $0.72] (σ_PBO ∈ [100%, 70%])
- For PAROA options (purchased @ $0.18) to match the ROI of PAR (purchased @ 50c), PAR's share price in a year's time would need to be in the range [$0.75, $0.81] (σ_PBO ∈ [100%, 70%])
It's worth noting that the risk of a total loss is higher when purchasing PAROA, as you can't always sell your options at the B&S price and your PAROA options will expire worthless if the share price is under ~$0.55 in a year's time (unless you think σ_PBO is greater than 100%).
However, if instead you only invested half of what you had planned to invest in PAR in PAROA, then under B&S assumptions, PAR's share price would only have to be trading at [$0.89, $0.99] (σ_PBO ∈ [100%, 70%]), in a year's time, for the total return on $10K invested in PAROA @ $0.18 to be higher than the total return on $20K invested in PAR @ $0.50.
So if PAR's share price in a year's time is between $0.25 and [$0.89, $0.99] (σ_PBO ∈ [100%, 70%]), you would have been better off investing $20K in PAR @ 50c per share, but if PAR's share price is less than $0.25 or greater than [$0.89, $0.99] you would have been better off investing $10K in PAROA @ 18c per option.
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PAR
paradigm biopharmaceuticals limited..
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Ann: Loyalty and Piggyback Options Program, page-441
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Last
32.0¢ |
Change
-0.015(4.48%) |
Mkt cap ! $124.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
33.5¢ | 34.0¢ | 31.5¢ | $215.7K | 663.5K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 30081 | 31.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
32.5¢ | 10905 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 8058 | 0.315 |
1 | 16129 | 0.310 |
1 | 50000 | 0.305 |
2 | 52500 | 0.300 |
3 | 117880 | 0.295 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.325 | 10905 | 1 |
0.330 | 10 | 1 |
0.335 | 3500 | 1 |
0.340 | 113110 | 3 |
0.350 | 53621 | 7 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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PAR
PARADIGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED..
Paul Rennie, MD & Founder
Paul Rennie
MD & Founder
SPONSORED BY The Market Online