I'm predicting the H1 FY25 results will not wow the market, based on trading updates (I do love trading updates!).
Based on the Nov update predicting ~15% growth vs H1 FY24, I think we can expect a similar (or even very slightly softer) first half of FY25 compared with H2 FY24. If so, this will be the first half in a while where they didn't grow... which the market might not like.
If we have about the same $8.4M revenue and $7M expenses, this would put us at a loss still (assuming no R&D refunds). Again, no debt being paid down, but still about >$8.5M in the bank. If profitability has improved as predicted, that's good. It could put us at 73-74% profit margin (I'm not sure on the cap).
I predict people will react cynically (justified), and the SP will drop to mid 30's range, maybe even low 30's*.
H2 FY25
The upside will be that if their predictions for 30% growth overall are truthful, that would mean H2 FY25 would have to be a big one to make up the difference (*this would be attractive). We could then expect H2 FY2 to be ~$11.5M ish, which could take us into slight profit for the first time since you-know-what. When (and if) this happens, I can see sentiment turning quickly, and the SP recovering (50's+?).
On the other hand, if they fail to reach around 30% growth for the full year, that'll be it for me. Fool me once thrice, etc.
CSX Price at posting:
41.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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