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onetricky

16,230 Posts.

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20/02/25

12:41

Post #: 77945382
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Originally posted by Kit67 ↑

What Bullock was implying was that the neutral point is lower (4.10% RBA Cash Rate is still "restrictive"). How much lower "neutral" is, who knows. The labour force numbers just released point to unemployment starting to trend higher. Total hours worked also shows a marginal decline. And not to forget, GDP per capita is actually negative (even though headline GDP was positive). Add these up, and you have a slowing economy.

There WILL be another easing, as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow. How deep the next easing cycle goes is anyone's guess though, and noone knows the timing of the next cut (my two cents worth on this is that we will see the cash rate at 3.60% by the end of 2025, and probably bottoming out around 3.10% by mid 2026).

Regards
Kit.

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'The labour force numbers just released point to unemployment starting to trend higher,

nope.
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