Actually Hottin I do know this and I have a fairly reasonable basis to make that conclusion.
What do you think the market price of WA1 will be at $11 EPS?
What companies can afford to buy us out?
Very likely WA1 could end up being a 10 bn AUD company at a minimum.
Our banks cannot finance this sort of purchase. They're simply not big enough.
The scale of a buyer is at BHP/RIO levels (they actually have enough cash on hand) but are they interested in Niobium?
FMG don't have enough cash on hand. Anglo American has enough cash on hand if you factor in the exchange rate but some of that is extraordinary from the sale of steel making assets, which means they would be less interested in niobium.
St George (certainly!) and CBMM aren't big enough. CMOC has about 7 bn AUD cash on hand.
Some of the companies with enough free cash on hand to buy use know nothing about mining. Why would AAPL want to buy a mine?
This might turn out way differently than we assumed.
We might start buying other firms out.
Would you hate it if instead of a TO you got 8 AUD as a dividend per share growing every year into the forseeable and distant future?
You could always sell your shares on an open market. Even at 5% div yields, the pricing is many times more than the current price.
If we make 13 AUD EPS and average div. yields trend down, not even BHP are likely to be able to afford us.
You have to remember last year Anglo American even turned down a 60 bn AUD offer from BHP.
WA1 Price at posting:
$13.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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