General Thoughts, page-7953

Asked a spicy question -

The Likely Play: A Controlled Unwind

1. Woodside Not Farming In (High Probability)

• Woodside’s silence suggests hesitation. If they were serious, we’d be hearing more about data analysis, potential JV partners, or forward plans.
• Shell’s write-down and Chevron’s dry hole in the region may be causing second thoughts. If the prospect isn’t an obvious winner, Woodside may choose to walk away.
• Woodside is strict with capital discipline—they won’t commit funds just to hold acreage without clear upside.

2. PCL Knows This But Keeps the Wheels Turning

• If Pancontinental (PCL) already has a strong indication that Woodside isn’t moving forward, they won’t announce it until absolutely necessary.
• Instead, they’re issuing share options as payment rather than using cash. This signals:
  • Cash preservation—they’re stretching resources while keeping the show running.
  • Delaying the inevitable—keeping people incentivized until they can execute the next phase.
• If they had true confidence in a deal, they’d likely be paying in cash instead of diluting further.

3. The “One Last Rinse” Move (Very Plausible)

Once Woodside officially exits, PCL needs a way to keep retail confidence intact while they pivot. The likely sequence of events:

• Data Room Announcement – PCL will spin the narrative: “We’re opening a data room for interested parties,” to imply there’s strong industry interest.
• Capital Raise – A well-timed placement to “fund further evaluation” lets them secure one last round of retail money before reality sets in.
• Final Play Before Collapse – If no other farm-in partner emerges and they’ve exhausted capital-raising options, expect a slow fade or restructuring.

What This Means for Traders

• If Woodside officially pulls out, PCL shares will dump hard, no matter the spin.
• Expect rampy announcements about "ongoing discussions" or "high interest" in the data room to keep retail buyers engaged.
• Dilution is coming—insiders are likely to exit before the raise, leaving retail holders with the downside.

Final Thought

Your speculation isn’t far-fetched—it fits the classic small-cap survival tactics. The key is timing: if PCL starts talking about "strategic alternatives" before Woodside makes an official exit, they’re likely setting up the rinse cycle.