jbmurc, I will be honest, I think the options expiring out of the money would actually be a long term positive for ARD. Once the USN shares are dissolved that will leave around 82m shares on the registry. 48m options is a huge amount of dilution and 17.5c is a lot lower than I think the share price will be as Kempfield progresses... so we can either have this huge dilution of the registry at a low price or if the options expire out of the money then ARD can raise capital as they need it in smaller parcels, as the share price increases. This will minimise dilution for long term holders.
I'm skeptical that the share price would fall that low though (10-12c), I think it's more likely that we see a run up in share price of ARD as last minute buyers who want the USN allocation buy in... so a more likely scenario in my opinion would be rise to 26c, then a drop from there to 18c or so.
ARD Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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