Fabulous news…but actually its even better than it looks because :
You have all forgotten that a significant number of patients (partial responders only ) needed a further course of four infusions. Data from GVHD001 showed 535 total infusions over 54 patients which more accurately reflects this.
Then it gets very complicated because you have to rebase baseline characteristics with more representative percentages of Grade B under 12 patients which are more likely to require the 8 week dose requirement as opposed to the 12 ( in theory) . I think very sensibly that Mesoblast initially will conceed that many over 12’s with Grade B disease are likely to be treated with Rux to begin with , which is why the reimbursement is able to mirror the actual claims experience in hospitalisations costs in the kids now being saved. Unlike Ruxolitinib which has an almost universal early T cell response impact on “responders” with the first 28 days , a reasonable percentage of our treatment cohorts fail to show full recovery until the week following (I have not got the data with me right now) which means that there is always likely to be a significant revenue opportunity from the additional dosing.
Then we must allow for 10-20% discounting for Medicaid patients from the indicated sales prices….so broadly speaking , I would anticipate ending up at a ballpark figure of around $1.65m-$1.7m per patient . But, hey, whose quibbling…with this reference pricing the opportunity in paediatric treatment refractory Crohn’s Disease and Ulcerative Colitis is starting to look like a US$5bn opportunity assuming a dose one quarter of that needed for sr aGVHD. Don’t forget the dosing in the ECCO 2022 poster abstract was 150-300m cells.
When are those wonderful Australian biotech and healthcare analysts going to do their job and make their clients money. Their failure to show up and ask their own questions speaks volumes. Do they not understand a landmark approval when they see one ?
Lastly , a round of applause for Silviu and the team. Of course, there have been disappointments and low points but with this reference pricing , I am feeling extremely confident of a massive year for the Company ! With potential partnerships to secure for CLBP, CHF, Crohns/UC i doubt you will recognise the share price in due course …hehe OP
Please do not rely on the thoughts and opinions contained in the post above when making an investment decision. Ask an Australian biotech analyst for their detailed models.
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