Just got to watch the Webinar. Super impressive results and feel very confident in management and the future of the company. I had previously posted about the revenue drop for 2025 due to lack of big milestone payments but with Canadian revenues beginning in the second half and some dollars likely from the European managed access schemes as well as the interest on that massive cash pile we should get to around $100 million. I'm not particularly confident the first sales milestone in Europe will be triggered this year. Jon said it would depend a lot on the details of what Acadia sets up and there's certainly no incentive for them to trigger it early by being overly aggressive on these programs when the decision from regulators is still pending.
So it's still a big drop from the $200+ million we've made previously and costs will rise when the Ph3 gets going but it's all very affordable and will just be a blip on the chart if all goes to plan.
Regarding the timeframe for the PMS Ph3 Jon did reference the trofinetide Rett's Ph3 and thought it was the best comparator. That was around two years and I believe involved 187 patients with 12 weeks dosing so 2027 seems like the realistic target. I'm hoping the market regains its senses and the share price moves back into the twenties as we move towards that result but if it's positive then the really big numbers will become a reality
NEU Price at posting:
$13.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)