Gday,
Firstly, im very sorry to see the recent SP movement. I hope the SP recovers ASAP.
I want to talk about the important listing rule 3.1- CONTINUOUS DISCLOSURE
http://www.asx.com.au/ListingRules/guidance/gn08_continuous_disclosure.pdf
Lets run through the situation again in super slow mo.
Oct 26, 2010 - Sept 10 Qtrly gives forecasts for PRODUCED ozs of Au at
- 2,100 ozs in Oct
- 2,610 ozs in Nov
- 3,570 ozs in Dec - primarily due to 'Supergene high grades'
Nov 22, 2010 - In response to an ASX query, A1 quotes a revenue target of $7,500,000 and 'cash' Opex of $5,500,000, thus warranting the status of being a 'going concern'
Jan 28, 2011 - Dec 10 Qtrly activities report states production of 4,107 oz Au and revenues of $5,700,000 (incl Silver)
So...... At what point did the 8,280 ozs forecast materially change? Before the ASX query, which implied approximately 5,500 ozs production (i.e. 66% of forecast) or how about when the plant was shut down in Nov/Dec? or what about when they decided to change the mining schedule and only mine low grade ore? December was to be all about Supergene ore - that wasnt touched in Nov. Is that material to achieving their forecasts?
At any one of the three months they could of advised the market of the massive discrepancy btw forecast and actual production.
- Oct 10 - forecast of 2,100oz - actual 1,296 - 61.7%
- Nov 10 - forecast of 2,610oz - actual 1,466 - 56.1%
- Dec 10 - forecast of 3,570oz - actual 1,345 - 37.7%
At what point should management consider informing holders of their plans? At what point should shareholders know that Beta is on its last legs, and that Alpha is still only a hopeful proposition? When will they pay the enviro bond to activate mining at Alpha? Do they have the cash to do so? What terms are Watpac on now? What is the creditors balance? What are Watpac's intentions with respect to Delta? Most importantly - when will the reserve grade become recoverable?
How can the company continue on like this. Surely ASX has to pull them in and iron out these guys. Investors are being massacred now that the market knows how poorly they performed during the last qtr. Listing rule 3.1 is there specifically to avoid this sort of 'bombshell' scenario.
IMO, the board of A1 have materially mislead holders and all other stakeholders. Accountability is zero, trust is now also zero.
regards,
Split
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