JUst do the maths and the reserach mate - its just geology 101 - no big "wooo" conspiracy theories mate.
HVY's 2022 16 year mine life that you note note in the SS - specifically has written right beside it in same sentance "with the potential to extend with further successful drilling"
according to their 10/07/ 23 annoucement of the PG jorc increase they noted the Jorc upgrade increased the measured PG resource by 23%.
this logically extends the mine life ....as long as they mine at the same rate envisioned in the SS as per the plant size they have calculated in the SS. .... by 23% - so 23$ added on to 16 years = 19.69 years?. And as noted above Adam has stated in an interview that the mine life should extend due to the upgrade to around 21 years. - no big conspiracy theory here mate. just doing the research and knowing simple geology - the exact new mine life will be in there PFS and reckon it will over 20 years and nearer to 21.
By the way the resource upgrade also logically increases the NPV stated in the SS (based on the old resource size ) by around 23% . So it should go from A$253 NPV to around A$ 311. - thus making HVY at its current A$ 17 million market cap only worth around 5.5% now of its conservatively calculated Net Present Value by the ASX-approved IHC and qualified engineers. (or @justifiedduck are they also just pump and dump rampers???)
here s what else it does - given that normal mesh alluvial garnet is now selling in the USA today at around 25 cents per LB -public knowledge from Fastmarkets web site (x2,200lbs that makes it USD 550 per ton.- at the current exchange rate that's around A$870 per ton.(in ss they use USD 750 from 2022)
As HVY's upgraded resource is 5.9 million tons. The IGV (In-Ground Value) of the garnet ( just in rPG esource - not including the big and growing Red Hill resource equals 5.9 million tons x A$ 870 = A$ 4.46 billion. - so today HVY with its A$17 mill market cap is effectively being valued at just 0.038% of its proven jorced In ground value. To me this is a laughably low valuation for a product that's globally in big demand and short supply right now (as next door GMA mine which provides 75% of the USD 1.6 billion a year market shows) Plus the resource is in a great safe mining jurisdiction like WA by a port.
To me that's the same as saying you can buy now every ton of garnet abrasive sand in the ground there for around 2.6 cents a ton - whenits sellable for A$870 a ton. You think other minning companies wouldn't buy that and start that business to make big money - of course they would do ....in heartbeat.
Remember many resources sell for 5-10% of their IGV? So even valuing HVY at just 2% of its IGV seems very cheap given the circumstances -
2% of HVY's current 4.46 billion IGV =. A$ 89 million. So with 67 mill shares issued that means HVY shares should be around A$1.10 and would still be cheap - at least the way I calculate value.
So in short I'm happy buying it at these levels here at 25 cents etc.simply because i see very little downside potential but massive upside potential. if nothing goes horrendously wrong.
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HVY
heavy minerals limited
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Last
29.0¢ |
Change
-0.030(9.38%) |
Mkt cap ! $19.59M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
32.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 29.0¢ | $11.03K | 37.23K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2665 | 30.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
33.0¢ | 2858 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 22631 | 0.290 |
1 | 3854 | 0.285 |
1 | 3920 | 0.280 |
3 | 54807 | 0.275 |
1 | 11111 | 0.270 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.330 | 2858 | 1 |
0.340 | 55000 | 2 |
0.380 | 35000 | 1 |
0.400 | 5000 | 1 |
0.000 | 0 | 0 |
Last trade - 15.59pm 20/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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HVY (ASX) Chart |