You're shifting the argument, Scotty. I'm talking strictly about consolidations, nothing else. Not my entry points, not expected news, just the raw effect of consolidations.
In over a decade of debating this across countless stocks, I've yet to see a single example where a consolidation didn't lead to a lower market cap post consolidaiton. I’m sure exceptions exist and please if anyone has one please show me I want to see it, but no one has ever provided one. Every time this debate comes up, the outcome is the same: the market cap drops below its pre-consolidation level.
That’s the core issue. Consolidations aren’t good for current holders. In 95% of cases (and I’m being generous in assuming those exceptions exist), you can buy in cheaper post-split, regardless of your entry point or any upcoming news.
If an action had a 95% probability of destroying shareholder value and wasn’t necessary, why would you do it? It costs time, money, and ultimately hurts shareholders. The usual excuse is meeting listing requirements, but we're already on Nasdaq as an ADR. The real only reason? To raise money at a superficially higher price, leading to more dilution.
Anyway, no need to go too deep into this, it’s not on the table yet, and let’s hope it stays that way.
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