I posted this on the latest announcement, but its just a presentation and won't be seen by too many, so I thought I would also post it in this thread. All figures are derived from the latest presentation dated today.
A simple spreadsheet assuming half capacity and Eso sells for the same as it does in Aust and for $A400 in the US, while at half capacity.
We keep 70% so around $A 30 mill in revenue.
I expect D numbers to be fairly level over the long term as repeat tests will be the recommendation, while Eso numbers should be fairly steady each year once fully marketed. I also expect the US tests to be multiples of what our lab capacity is.
Remember that this does not include Endo, which I think will peak early, being a novel test, and then find a base number of new clients each year thereafter. Also remember, this is our own lab at half capacity. Plenty of room for those figures to increase, along with the mention of licensing other labs if we need extra (or for supply chain issues). The US markets are huge and expecting multiples of those test numbers.
I can see revenue numbers between $50-300 mill per year easily with the three running. And I think that is conservative.
The company has 131 mill shares, so lets say 150 mill shares after any CR. You can do the numbers regarding EPS and PER given various share prices.
They still have to prove their business model, but the markets are there and screaming out for a product like ours in each, so again I don't think you could see a better biotech or growth company to invest in at this stage of the product cycle (IMO).
Please check my figures as I am happy to be shown if/where I went wrong with my calculations and assumptions.
Milesy
PIQ Price at posting:
49.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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