FWIW, I mostly agree. I can see a whole sale sell off if big margin calls etc are tripped and the gold holdings are needed for liquidity purposes (it would be a reluctant sell off I would think). So, only a temporary drop, if any. Once free of their debt obligations, these people would probably then attempt to get back into the metals with whatever they had left.
I don't believe any big chunk upwards on the Au/Ag price is due to the geopolitical events (although if the Middle East erupts into all out war - then the price could fly north). No, I reckon this ramping of the price is mainly due to the Central Banks getting ready for the collapse of the financial system, which I also think has begun. Of course, once the everyday punter realises what is happening, they will then finally try and dive in - which will drive up the prices even further (especially gold's kid sister!!).
What ever happens to unfold, I'm holding!!
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