analysis of top 20 changes & conclusions, page-43

January 2011 Top 20
1. NATIONAL NOMINEES LIMITED 158,157,532 9.22
2. MR ANDREW WINSTON DOYLE 109,192,862 6.37
3. MR JAMES MICHAEL O'DWYER 57,011,770 3.33
4. MALCO (PNG) LIMITED 50,724,658 2.96
5. DUTCHESS OPPORTUNITY FUND II LP 42,614,737 2.49
6. TRAVIS REDDY + ELINA REDDY 37,900,794 2.21
7. MR KAI LIU 35,000,000 2.04
8. CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 29,281,661 1.71
9. O'DWYER INVESTMENTS PTY LTD 23,687,184 1.38
10. MRS VIRGINIA WARNECKE 17,028,577 0.99
11. MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 16,250,000 0.95
12. ATLANTIC INVESTMENT (AUST) PTY LTD 15,000,000 0.87
13. HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED 14,308,000 0.83
14. MR MARK PETER O'BRIEN + MRS LOUISE MARGARET MARTHA O'BRIEN 14,000,000 0.82
15. MR PAUL JEREMY HAY 13,385,743 0.78
16. RELGAN & CO PTY LTD 11,250,000 0.66
17. MR GORDON MENZIES WILSON 11,032,119 0.64
18. DELPHI SYSTEMS PTY LTD 10,500,000 0.61
19. MR STEPHEN PERROTT 10,500,000 0.61
20. MR EDWARD GARNET BUNN 10,000,000 0.58

Proably the most boring month ever (is stability a bad thing)?

Changes of note:
AWD down 2m - again, sold MST and bought 55k MSTG (Conv Notes)
Dutchess up 6.5m - That's 20m over the last 2 months
Virginia Warnecke up 2.5m (She was a seller of 500k in November)
O'Briens up 1m - they were also buyers in November

In a month where only 31,111,900 traded, and Dutchess was through a placement so not reflected in the number, again the conclusion I draw is that it's the little guys (perhaps day traders) who are trading the stock and not the top 20.

Looks like the serious players are pretty contended with what they have, or perhaps wanting to own more. So far, over the last 6 months, they will have done OK. My guess, these guys aren't in this to see 0.008 turn into 0.009 or 0.010, but 0.02 or 0.03 or even 0.10. To the lucky buyers who were bidding 0.008 over the month and were sold some, good luck to you. I would join your bid, but I can't wait until 20m get sold before I get some. Then again, someone might get desperate and a few more might panic and sell as well. Who knows, weirder things have happened.

For those who "have, hold and wait", I'm with you. At least the rot seems to have stopped. They will always be the lagards who still think a stock is going down (or up), well after it has turned the corner up (or down). That may be the sellers now, at least that is my hope. We need to see these guys 'cleaned out' by the buyers and, slowly but siurely, this seems to be happening.

Which ever way you look at it, this is probably the most stable that the top 40% of the shareholdings have been in the entire history of the company with a net 0.2% changing hands in the market amongst the entire 20.