Am I missing something here?
They said they have 85% market share of the whole world outside the US, with revenue of just $27m generated from the whole world (excl US). Given it’s near market saturation already and the machines are maxed out on generating revenue, we can’t see revenue outside the US increasing and it’s currently not profitable... It’s going to be flat as you said.
US revenue is $1.37 since FDA approval in 2023,
They believe each machine in the US can make just $70k per year from the larger sites (see below), so we can safely assume smaller sites would be half that at best. Let’s say $50k per year per machine on average... which I think is very generous given most of the sites will be small.
If they got 100 machines in market during a year in the USA, $50k x 100 = $5m in revenue.
However not all machines will be revenue generating from the start of the year, some will only come online at the end of the year so this will be lower.
So, for every 100 machines CYC has in the USA, revenue is going to be just $5m?.. And operating costs per annum for the USA is $6.5 (see below), however this might come down a bit.
Their big target for the USA is 250-300 machines by the end of 2026, so the max revenue they are going to make from that is between just $12,500,000 ($55k x 250) to $15,000,000 ($50k x 300). However many machines will not be online for that whole time, so we must drop that by a few million.
Then we take off operating costs.
..And they need $20m in the bank to spend to achieve this plan.
I mean they will break even, but this does not sound like a money printer?
And they have a major competitor (be it a year or so behind) who can roll out through every CT scanner in every hospital in the whole of the US, who is cheaper, quicker, easier, and doesn’t rely on nuclear departments, breathing in nuclear materials, or disposing of nuclear waste. This will affect any plans after the next two years, if not before.
It does sound like an uphill struggle for CYC.
You can see why confidence dropped after they released the USA figures.
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