Probably not a popular opinion
@Hingdog but to this interested observer (still doing my homework on this very interesting name), this is just looking like sensible 'reversion to the mean'. I think you can safely argue
there's really no way a pre-readout company should have been trading north of $2.0B or even $1.0B so far in advance of ph3 results for their two trials. Opthea recently showed the perils of a pre-readout company (even one with fantastic prior Phase 2b results) trading at such a lofty valuation - they were $738M before they went into a halt, and due to the ASX300 entry it had been bid up by dumb Super money to as high as $1.4B. As most are likely aware it's now looking like a zero.
Now look at Clarity: for most of its brief listed life it has traded below $300M. Your post has highlighted the steep fall, but was anyone questioning the steep rise in the same way? Obviously the patient 'complete response' came on 30 April 2024 which was an excellent result but you have to step back and wonder if that deserved to see the company trading within just months at $2.79B or essentially 10X what its historical market cap had been.
I think it's a useful reference to go back and look at the trading history of now-market darling Telix. For most of 2020 they traded around $400M and things didn't kick off until November 2020 when the stock gapped up on the China partnership news and then continued climbing. Then in December 2021 the FDA approved TLX591 (Illuccix), with the company trading at $2.2B. When the 2022 interest-rate turmoil rolled through the market it fell as low as $1.1B in May 2022, but in November they announced positive topline results for TLX250 (Zircaix) by which time it was back at $2.2B. The next leg up began in mid-April 2023 when they released their quarterly results. That to me seems the closest comparison to CU6, who I believe are still >12 months away from ph3 readout, never mind the requisite FDA approvals and commercialization activities required. It also says investors in this space should be ready for a wild ride whomever they choose to back.
Of course this is just my opinion and it should be taken with a healthy pinch of salt as I'm still researching the company, but if anything diving into CU6 made me realise a far easier way to play the radiopharma space is via Telix, which I purchased earlier this week. That doesn't mean CU6 can't be a good addition in the portfolio for different reasons, but as much as I'm no Frazis fan I think he has nailed the commentary on this. Timelines are pushed out, market participants are (probably correctly) anticipating a raise, and it got far too frothy over the past 12 months. So is a $1 handle out of the question? Looking at the long-term chart, history would say: not necessarily. As always, happy to have my mind changed but this is my take so far.
(20min delay)