Thanks for your opinion mate, I always like reading your stuff.
There's no doubt it was priced for perfection and probably more at the top with a hefty takeover premium plus the index funds retard bid pushing it up relentlessly there for a while. A few of us said so at the time, I was fortunate enough to sell half of mine out with an average in the high 7s but I was also dumb enough to believe my own BS and hold the other half for the long term or until i saw something go wrong funnymentally - that's been a mighty painful mistake. I knew it would have a decent pullback at some point, i was thinking 40% which would be normal, 50% wasn't entirely unreasonable given the run up. In a bear market 60% is about the limit for what a good name should pullback, once they go beyond that, the statistics say it's a very long shot for it to recover to new highs(ignoring any funnymentals, just stats)
I think between yourself and
@fourdollars you've probably about nailed it, back early last year I believe we were expecting Clarify(ph3 diagnostic) to read out in the second half of this year which would have meant potentially to market by the second half of next year. I'm not sure we'll be delayed as far as 2028 but it's probably not entirely unrealistic either, hard to know till we find out exactly where they are at with that trial. Their Secure trial(pmsa therapy) has had some great results still although they are a bit less than transparent with how they report them which certainly leaves some questions and maybe the fund managers understand it more than we do, hard to know. All the analysts I've seen(Wilsons, Bells, Barrenjoey) still seem to think everything is on track and there has been no negative change funnymentally, not that I rely on their views at all.
@fourdollars do you mind expanding on how you came up with 2028?
(20min delay)