Dude, you made the 10,15 years ROI point in MSB, not me. It "is on" in any stock. ROI is the most fundamental measure of any investment and 'is on' in all stocks. You prove exactly my actual focus, that you incorrectly suggest otherwise, by saying its okay to point out a 10 year ROI in MSB and infer its crap (which it is) but not other stocks.
To unfortunately quote one of my nemeses, "just sayin'".
Meanwhile, back to the matter in hand. Initial Commercial Sales of Ryconcil:
According to Hot Copper news, the markets, i.e. investors en masse, are rather too busy navel gazing on lack of revenue information from the company, rather than celebrating the rather grand, and even six months ago unimaginable, commencement of commercial sales. Sales that will help sr-GVHD suffering paediatric patients with mortality rates that we know are sadly as high as 90%.
Investors do not need revenue guidance. We've all spoken about it enough on these threads. The math is not that hard - if you can stomach the rather callous computation of mortality rates for purposes of revenues. >10% penetration (that the reimbursement progress is already past) at $194K (USD) per 2 infusions per week for 4 weeks (many may have 8 weeks) is $1.5M USD x 10% x Y, where Y = chronic paediatric patients alive at an approximately 375 per year affliction rate with harsh mortality rates.
0-1 year patients assuming a 60% 1-year survival rate, an average of 80% patients alive.
1-2 years patients assuming a 40% 2-year survival rate and 1-year survival rate at 60%, an average of 50% of patients alive
2-3 years patients assuming a 10% 3-year survival rate and 40% 2-year survival rate, an average of 25% of patients alive.
Awful figures to contemplate, and all the more reason to be celebrating this treatment's commercial availability.
But for those moaning investors, complaining about a lack of revenue guidance, rather than celebrating the availability of treatment at last to desperate kids and their parents, assuming 100% of parents who are now covered are knocking down doors to get their kids on treatment (wouldn't you be?), that's back of the envelope 10% of $1.55 millon USD x 375 x (0.8+0.5+0.25) i.e. $90 million dollars of potential sr-GVHD paediatric revenue starting to emerge into MSB's accrued revenues already (cash flows will lag of course) just from 10% insurance coverage of existing and 'still alive' paediatric patients.
That's some proportion of a $90 million revenue at just 10% reimbursement coverage in the US on a qtrly cash flow statement that last saw $10 million in operational outflows. MSB investors should be both celebrating the commercial availability of Ryconcil on both on a compassionate and (not too difficult to work out) potential revenue basis.
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