It does seem like the number of procedures is finally starting to pick up, and I agree—it could be a very interesting quarterly next month.
That said, I believe the revenue figures still don’t fully reflect what’s actually happening on the ground, for a few key reasons:
Payment timing – From what I’ve seen, some hospitals take up to 90 days to pay, so procedures done this quarter might not show up until the next.
Trial cannibalisation – I estimate that the TRIPP-FFX trial has been using around 6 procedures a month this quarter, and since those aren’t billed commercially, they’ve been masking some of the underlying growth. That should change after the trial wraps up in May and those sites move to paid use.
Procedure reporting restrictions – My understanding is that, under advice from the previous CFO, the company hasn’t been able to disclose commercial procedure numbers in the quarterly reports. That’s made it harder to get a clear sense of actual commercial traction.
Distributor sales distorting the revenue picture – While the average direct procedure might generate around USD $25,000, I’d assume distributor-led procedures return closer to 70% of that to OncoSil. So even though the number of treatments may be growing, the revenue doesn’t always reflect it clearly—especially as more distributor markets come online.
In my view, we’re still on track for quarter-on-quarter growth, and I expect that to become more obvious once the trials wrap up and more sites transition into regular commercial use. It also looks like the company is trying to get the message out via LinkedIn, where they’ve been sharing treatment updates and signalling momentum—probably their way of giving us a bit of insight while staying within reporting rules.
Still, at the end of the day—it’s all about sales, sales, sales. Regular, consistent growth will speak louder than anything else.
Looking ahead, I’m personally excited to see how things unfold across a few key areas:
The ramp-up of German G-BA trial sites
Completion of the TRIPP-FFX and PANCOSIL trials
Progress on FDA HDE approval
The label expansion for percutaneous delivery, which I think could be a game changer—especially in the U.S.
And the growing number of trained commercial sites now using the device
Once that momentum starts flowing through into the revenue numbers, I reckon sentiment could shift fairly quickly. But will it be soon enough to save the OSLOB options from expiring out of the money and forcing the company into yet another cap raise!! - Fingers crossed next quarterly provides enough fuel to get the share price there!!
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