prep thread 7-13 feb 2011, page-6

Fundamentally the NFP was strange, should have been very bad news for the USD but given Dollar index was near support and other currencies were ripe for profit-taking, no surprise that there was a bit of USD strength.

I don't follow CAD but I believe just recently they released good job numbers but higher unemployment figure? NFP was the opposite, with even less jobs than last time, much less than forecast, but lower unemployment number (9%)... smacks of people giving up looking.

I have read 10 different commentaries on NFP and 10 different opinions so far. So, to the technicals...

I am looking for a further bearish move on the EURUSD. I think I recently posted a chart with 1.3540 as the 50% retracement of the recent move up. Lo and behold, we saw it almost hit after NFP.
- so, I am watching this week for a retrace up to near the 1.3650 mark, before a move down that should continue well beyond 1.3540 and further to 1.3200 if USD strength continues.

(would love a monday gap back to 1.3540.... c'mon forex gods!)

Sorry if I have already derailed the thread Wink, I will post another Euro thread regardless on Monday with charts and targets