I know CB has me on ignore, but Leondis post was directed more at CB than almost anyone else, with me probably voicing and pointing the most persistent finger at management.
Clearly CTP had a strategy of going it alone and snatch for the golden ring.
Where we are now says a number of things. 1. miscalculation of the tightness-difficulty of the resource 2. misplaced confidence in ability to deliver
About the strategy 3. there does not seem to have been a Plan B 4. misjudged how the more solid JV partners really viewed CTP's resource i.e. CTP blinded to reality 5. a single pronged go it alone strategy 3. coupled with a misjudged view 4. means that cash flow was allowed, or couldn't be stopped, from running down
Missing in the strategy in hindsight was that some of the "good" acreage should have been offered away (e.g.Eric) to provide more diversity in outcomes.
As I think about it, I believe there is a hoarding instinct at work. The idea that more can be gained by sharing, ESPECIALLY when you have enough acreage to start your own country, hasn't applied.
I am cognisant that there were quite a few issues with extricating CTP from bad JV's that consumed managements time on the way through. But that still doesn't mean that a more comprehensive and robust strategy could not have been worked out - you can think and plan while mowing the lawn for goodness sake.
All-in-all its been $100,000,000 of on-the-job training for a $600,000 p.a. apprentice. The CV if you read them show that experience generally was gained inside major fully staffed corporations where things "get done". Money is raised etc.. With CTP there is no established revenue stream, small staff numbers and the significance of this was never factored in the strategy.
Lessons learned, but the future will not repeat the past. CTP needs an MD with a record of getting start-up oilers on to their feet, not just the land acquisitor who also happens to have given themselves a major shareholding.
CTP Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
