MAY melbana energy limited

Ann: Cuba Block 9 Update, page-1615

  1. 8,420 Posts.
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    Multiple productive reservoirs.

    Let that sink in eh.

    As for world markets: Bobo has taxed his own citizens into oblivion, which will lower global GDP and lead to lower global growth expectations. American gross debt typically expands (they consume more than they produce), thus a contraction will likely reduce gross debt but will knock-on severely into Chinese and foreign production thus reducing the need for inputs such as ores, coal, gas and oil. Commodity prices will fall, and yes - this does impact reserve valuations. That said, Block 9 reserves are currently valued as if fully risked, thus production confirmations (flow confirmations) will aid in de-risking these valuations and should see an uplift in the share price. No one knows whether the forward wave (coming from de-risking of reserves) will be greater or less than the backwash wave coming in from the expected GDP slowdown. But it should result in lower global interest rates as growth decreases and uncertainty increases, reducing the cost of debt and capital (which normalise over time), which subsequently increase the PV of reserves (in the same was as property prices increase: it's not just the borrowing costs that decrease, but the capitalisation rate also decreases, increasing Present Values). So there are arguments both ways regarding the impact of the recent US moves.

    What we do know is that the remediation of A2 has run over-time, according to those here at least. Whether that is good or bad, we don't yet know. But the single description of multiple productive reservoirs is certainly grounds for hope.

    Enjoy the week: could be interesting.
    Kit.
 
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