Ann: Commercial Update and Regulatory Progress, page-298

I'm not down ramping it to buy-it. It does that all by itself. This and MinRes are the two stocks that I have that have money where I have something to say about the quality of the disclosure. MinRes is about snippets of the truth, which meant that $30 was not the floor, and this is about never having the story straight enough for a public company.

I have a few parcels of LTP that are averaged in a bit under $1 that I purchased on the expectation that approvals would be running this calendar year and that there was clarity around the license and intellectual property. In particular, the representations that it had succeeded in clinical trials and it was moving into FDA pre-approvals by March. Further, the convertible also implies a cash runway until CY26, consistent with that thesis. I kept averaging it down despite the fact that it showed clear signs of insider trading in the lead up to the CR, but let's leave that to one side.

After the most recent market disclosures at which point I realised I had been extremely sloppy. The thing that alarms me, and I say this as a class actions lawyer by day, is that you can tell from the recent market disclosures (including the compounding pathway) that the company has a difficult relationship expectations. The company knows it share price was supported by a material misunderstanding as to its pathway to market. What I now suspect is that there are other material misunderstandings about its intellectual property rights and whether it is in a position to fund itself to market from current cash reserves.

Luckily the $20k I toasted is less than 0.1% of total holdings but I think this needs to be called out as a classic example of why small caps are the wild west.

Now what I should have done is thought more clearly about:

1. the lack of tenure in the licensing agreement;
2. the speculative nature of the timeline for approval;
3. the competitive impact of daily Cialis - which appears to be pretty well tolerated and doesn't require any reactive dosing; and
4. the fact that nasal delivery has been contemplated since 2010 - which would mean if this was a killer clinical pathway, US pharma would be expected to have chased this down, especially since *word disallowed by google has been out of patent since 2020.

So what we are looking at is an improved delivery format of a generic drug that has strong competition from another generic drug (Tadalafil) that can taken routinely. Cost per dose is not the inhibiting factor in the battle between two generics.

Assuming this product does get to market it has to compete on cost, its not clear if the IP licensing is an effective moat and I am going to suggest that if I needed this kind of treatment, daily Cialis would be where I would go to.

However, I didn't think that through and instead just speculated that this would be a decent hold until FDA approval. Which makes me a mug punter.

So no, not accumulating, and no not down ramping, and also, doubt anyone is accumulating. This is just a dog stock with a poor board, a problem with its market disclosures and a questionable product. I'm leaning towards a sell but I'm hoping it dead cat bounces back to 50c.