Ann: Resource Growth and Discovery Drilling Commences at Minyari, page-23

There’s something playing out in real time that I think deserves serious attention — especially for those of us holding Antipa Minerals

Right now, Greatland is pushing a narrative that everything is on track for first production from Havieron in FY28. That timeline is front and centre in their investor messaging, and it’s clearly being used as the foundation of their upcoming ASX listing in June 2025.

But here’s the thing: when you look at the actual history and technical progress, the FY28 target isn’t just overly optimistic — it’s contradicted by every milestone they’ve missed so far.

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1. The FY28 Havieron Production Timeline Doesn’t Hold Up

Let’s rewind:

•In 2020, first ore was tentatively expected by 2024.

•In 2021, they kicked off the decline development — already behind schedule.

•By 2022, delays were reported due to ground conditions.

•The Feasibility Study, originally due in late 2022, is still not complete in April 2025.

•The Ore Reserve hasn’t been updated since 2022, despite a major Indicated Resource upgrade.

•There’s no Final Investment Decision (FID).

•No project schedule. No capital cost update.

And yet… they’re telling the market to expect first gold in FY28?

That date has become a kind of marketing anchor — but there’s no evidence that it’s realistic. In fact, every update since 2020 has involved some form of delay or deferral. If anything, the pattern suggests further slippage is more likely than success.

What’s more — and this is flying under the radar — GGP is doubling down on this narrative just as it prepares to re-list on the ASX, which raises questions about whether this is being used as a confidence signal to attract new institutional investors.

But is this just typical ‘pre-takeover’ marketing strategy from GGP to not increase the value of AZY while their hands are tied waiting for an ASX listing?

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2. The ‘Bridge’ Strategy — High-Cost, Low-Confidence Ore? Really?

To fill the gap until Havieron supposedly comes online, Greatland’s solution is to extend production at Telfer — but here’s the problem:

•FY27 AISC (All-in Sustaining Cost) is projected at A$2,750–2,950/oz — that’s borderline uneconomic.

•Much of the feedstock is low-grade stockpiles at 0.33 g/t Au.

•Over 20% of the two-year production target comes from Inferred Resources and Exploration Targets — that’s very unusual for a company positioning itself as a near-term producer.

Including that much low-confidence inventory in near-term production estimates is something you’d expect from a junior explorer, not a company trying to list as a credible ASX gold producer.

If I were a Greatland shareholder, I’d be asking:

Where is the value case here? Why are we not looking at better options?

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3. Enter Antipa: The Best Value Solution Hiding in Plain Sight

That brings us to Minyari Dome — right next door.

Antipa’s October 2024 Scoping Study puts it head and shoulders above the Telfer extension

Minyari Dome is only 35km from Telfer, and could provide:

•A more economic mill feed,

•Lower capital risk, (CAPEX could be reduced further under a toll treatment scenario and if telfers mining fleet was utilised at minyari)

•And genuine value creation in a timeline that beats Havieron.

And yet, Greatland hasn’t mentioned it — not once.

Why? Likely because:

•They can’t act until after the ASX listing for a script merger and

•They don’t want to drive up AZY’s share price before they’re in a position to make a move.

But let’s be clear: from a project economics standpoint, Minyari Dome presents the best return and lowest risk of any option GGP currently has in the near term.

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4. What Does This Mean for Antipa Shareholders?

It means we’re holding the strategic card that Greatland needs — but can’t move on yet.

•GGP’s ASX listing completes in June.

•Expect activity around AZY to ramp up after that.

•If Antipa can hold its ground, there’s serious leverage here — for a JV, acquisition, or premium offtake deal.

•Be aware that we’re in the strongest negotiating position we’ve had in years.

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5. Final Thought — The Window Is Now

To me, Greatland’s silence is starting to look less like cautious strategy and more like deliberate ambiguity. They know they need a solution. They know Minyari Dome is the best fit. But they’re hoping to keep it quiet until they can make a move — on their terms. And they have changed subtle messaging in their disclosures previously “regional external opportunities for hub and spoke” to “we have this high cost, very marginal low grade ore feed that will do fine until havieron”

If the market catches on first — and Antipa plays its cards right — we could be heading into a very rewarding few months.

Would love to hear other thoughts on this. Anyone else reading between the lines?

This is based on some general research and shouldn’t be taken as financial or legal advice (DOYR) - I’ve tried to analyse as much public info that I could find but I may has missed some things, but I feel that the underlying message is valid