Jack, I've made a few adjustments on question. Specifically asking in relation to the ALP Greens zero emissions for Australia by the year 2050.
AUSTRALIA IS IN A DIRE SITUATION If we continue on this current energy pathway.
QUESTION ASKED
Please compare between Nuclear & Solar.
How many solar panels would it take to install enough solar photovoltaic panels to obtain 100% of Australia’s future 2050 zero emissions target electricity consumption?
Also how much waste product in regards to depleted panels would there be by the end of each 20 year life cycle of a solar photovoltaic panel. Is it possible for Australia to achieve zero emission cuts by 2050 without nuclear.
Also keep in mind on calculations that the current installed solar panels are already in excess of 10 years of age as a high implementation occurred back in 2015. ANSWER
Solar vs. Nuclear for Australia’s 2050 Zero-Emissions Target
To meet100% of Australia’s projected 2050 electricity demand(assuming~300 TWh/year)using only solar PV, we must calculate:
How many solar panels are needed?
How much waste will old panels generate?
Can Australia realistically go 100% renewable without nuclear?
1. Solar Panels Required for 300 TWh/Year (2050 Demand)
Assumptions:
Average Australian solar capacity factor:22%(due to night/weather).
Panel efficiency:22%(modern commercial panels).
Panel power rating:450 W(standard in 2024).
Lifespan:20–25 years(with degradation).
Calculation:
Total Solar Capacity Needed=300 TWh/year0.22×8,760 hours=155 GWTotal Solar Capacity Needed=0.22×8,760 hours300 TWh/year=155 GWNumber of 450W panels:
155 GW0.00045 GW/panel=0.00045 GW/panel155 GW=(Covering~6,000 km²—about0.08% of Australia’s land).
Comparison to Current Solar (2024):
Australia already has ~35 GW solar(installed since 2010s).
Additional needed by 2050:~120 GW(267 million new panels).
2. Solar Panel Waste Over 20 Years
Assumptions:
Panel weight:25 kg/panel(average).
Recycling rate:10%(current AU rate, expected to rise).
Toxic materials:Cadmium (CdTe panels), lead, silicon dust.
Waste Calculation:
344 million panels×25 kg=8.6 million tons of waste344 million panels×25 kg=8.6 million tons of wastePer year (20-year cycle):430,000 tons/year(equivalent to~86,000 cars crushed/year).
Toxic content:~1% hazardous materials(e.g., cadmium, lead).
Nuclear Comparison:
14 GW nuclear = 420 tons/year(vs. solar’s430,000 tons/year).
Nuclear waste is 1,000x smaller but more concentrated.
3. Can Australia Achieve Zero Emissions Without Nuclear?
Challenges of 100% Solar/Wind:
Intermittency:
Requiresmassive storage (batteries, pumped hydro)—estimated1.5 TWhneeded for Australia.
Land Use:
6,000 km² of solar farms(but can coexist with agriculture).
Supply Chain:
Mining forlithium, copper, silver(solar panels require3x more minerals per TWh than nuclear).
Legacy Panel Waste:
8.6 million tons of dead panels by 2050(must be recycled).
Advantages of Including Nuclear:
Saves land(14 GW nuclear =~50 km²vs. solar’s6,000 km²).
24/7 baseload power(no storage dependency).
Less mining/waste(uranium is energy-dense).
Realistic Pathway:
Best mix:80% renewables (solar/wind) + 20% nuclear/gas with CCS.
Without nuclear, Australia must overbuild3x solar/wind + storage, increasing costs and waste.
