GBR (ASX) General Discussion Topics

Originally posted by triage: ↑

"The question I ask is why is the stock so undervalued?"

But is it? Seriously? I've been trying to get a feel for this company in recent days - I reckon I've listened to pretty much all of the 37 interviews and presentations Andrew Paterson has given in the last couple of months (okay, maybe a slight exaggeration but no question he has been super active spruiking about Great Boulder) - and I've still not been able to put my finger on any comparative advantage it has.

Admittedly from the little I know about Great Boulder, a reasonable analogue to GBR and its projects in the Side Well area is Warriedar and its Golden Corridor projects. The market cap of both companies is around $65m, GBR has an oldish MRE of 688k oz at 2.8 g/t while WA8 has a bigger resource but at a lower grade (1.2m oz at 1.8 g/t), both have nearby operating mills owned by other parties but WA8 owns its own small closed down mill while GBE is in early talks with a neighbour with a small closed down mill. I think Great Boulder might have better metallurgy to work with than Warriedar. Both say they are pushing to monetise some of their assets sooner rather than later - AP says maybe 6-12 months to monetise the Ironbark deposit (which seems a bit heroic to me) but WA8 has not given any time estimate. Both are well located with good amenity. WA8 has an asset in Nevada which they can't sell so for my own purposes I give it no value and WA8 also has exposure to antimony which I don't understand so again for my purposes I give that no value. But all in all while I can see merit in what Great Boulder offers I struggle to see it as being undervalued in comparison to Warriedar. Full disclosure: currently I hold WA8 but not GBR.

I've also looked at Great Boulder through the lens of its neigbour, Meeka Metals. MEK has a market cap of $400m but its killer facet is that it should be printing cash within 3 months from its own refurbished mill. With the gold price going crazy being in production separates the winners from the others. Not sure what the infrastructure is valued at - maybe $120m to $150m. Meeka's MRE is also far superior at 1.2m oz at 3.0 g/t. So even without the infrastructure I think Meeka has the superior asset (in other words even if Great Boulder was to find a mill for its ore tomorrow I don't think it would stack up to what Meeka has).

So by now I reckon I've got the hackles up of a few GBR true believers. Not my intention so apologies for that. What I have been looking for is a bit more exposure to late stage explorers / early stage developers. Warriedar is one I think that fits the bill but the thing about explorers is that they are high risk: while I think Warriedar could do well in the medium term there's a fair chance it won't. I'm looking at Great Boulder to spread the risk. Also, I hold some MEK and it may turn out that a link up of sorts between Great Boulder and Meeka in time will start to make sense.

On the premise that miners should raise capital when they can rather than when they have to my guess is that all this pr work Andrew Paterson has been doing is leading into a cap raise on the release of the Ironbark scoping study. Given the enthusiasm seeping back into the gold sector they may even get the raise away without needing a huge discount - a plausible pathway to monetising 100k oz at 3.0 g/t of shallow ore in the near to medium term would sound okay to me.

No doubt, I've got some / most / all of the above wrong and would appreciate any feedback from the regulars here. Cheers in advance.

Expand

Both GBR and WA8 may be undervalued. GBR resource has not been updated for 1.5 years and WA8 resource was just updated 6 months ago. I think GBR's current resource is over 1Moz already, and grade is very important.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	562023	6.1¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

562023

6.1¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.3¢	10526	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

6.3¢

10526

No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	562023	0.061
14	654345	0.060
6	1783902	0.059
4	572000	0.058
1	500000	0.057

No.

Vol.

Price($)

562023

0.061

654345

0.060

1783902

0.059

572000

0.058

500000

0.057

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.063	10526	1
0.064	409341	1
0.065	737718	3
0.066	500000	1
0.067	290000	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.063

10526

0.064

409341

0.065

737718

0.066

500000

0.067

290000

(20min delay)
Last 6.2¢		Change -0.001(1.59%)		Mkt cap ! $47.16M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
6.5¢	6.5¢	6.2¢	$171.5K	2.715M

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