Short term i agree with you. Sometimes Short term even last 3~ 5 years. Sooner or later it all comes back to fundamentals. Fundamentals include earnings Most commonly EPS or P/E if a company is not earning money it's stock will always drop. Your argument about how illogical Market is very good. "The market is full of people who act illogically and this two day feeding frenzy is evidence of that". What do you use that is repeatable and predictable? Also profits are so easy to predict for the long term future. All you need to look at is production charts, pricing charts and expenses. Pretty soon as they start using new equipment funded with $1.6B in CAP X that money will have to be expensed over 3 ~ 20 years. Increasing Expenses a lot.. further dragging down profit. 2024 Expenses Were $54.249M See page 70 of AR. $1.6B / 15years is 106 M which would mean expenses would triple. Large things like buildings and some equipment are 20 years. Other things like computers, furniture, Cars Trucks. and interior partitions can be as little as 3~5 years. But even if we use 20 years for everything 1.6B / 20 is still 80 M a year. That does not include expenses that go up with Volume like Labor, Energy and Chemicals That is an increase that is more than the profits in 2024 and many times more than profits could possibly be in 2025.
Why do I say many times more in 2025. In 2024 they made 72 M. in first half of 2025 they made 6M. Do you think profits jumping from 6m to 66M in 6 months is possible? I do not! in fact, anything over 12 would surprise me. Total 18 M. I will make a prediction that I will commit to after I see production volume in Q3.
Lynas production NdPr prices Note that my predictions have been high.
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