General Discussion Banter GLN, page-17639

My take on Sodium ion Batteries and Lithium ion Batteries (keeping in mind Elon Musk mentioned that "Lithium is everywhere")

Sodium Ion Batteries still has to have their supply chain sorted out.
Prussian Blue for the anode should be easy to scale BUT battery grade Porous Carbon/Hard Carbon or White Prussian for the Cathode is not easy to manufacture at scale. Just moisture control alone will be hard to do at scale.

Sodium Ion supply chain would still need to go through proven a scale production AND a clear chemistry type to move forward. (3 more known types of Sodium Batteries are prussian white, layered oxide, polyanion. no abbreviations for them yet!!) The Sodium Ion Battery industry has to go through these same learning curves as Lithium has been through but at a faster timescale perhaps?...

For those new here, Lithium was also hyped back in 2013 up till 2017 then the crash 2017-2020... then in 2021-2022 the cost of lithium and related metals went up through the roof...

Lithium Ion Batteries basically have gone through the scalability process and has made it to >85% passing rate. Lithium Batteries have now settled with the LFP Chemistry and the cost to LFP is still going down. I am sure the path to LFP is constantly being streamlined. I would not be surprised that LiCl to LFP is currently being done at scale in China now, I would go further to speculate the conversion processing of mining raw materials to BG materials are being streamlined and cost are still going down.

Also looking at volumes, Global Passenger Vehicle sales ONLY in 2024 is around 74 million .

Assuming a 50% of Passenger Vehicles in 2030 to be BEV @ 50kW battery pack would be 3.15mt LCE. [50% too much for 2030? it is 10.8mil Vehicles is 2024 yes BEV sales (Credit*number BEV registration from Rhomotion) so go figure.]

There will be space for both chemistries with Lithium running ahead. Solid State Batteries is still 3 -8 years from maturity (Production at Scale). First there will be a few chemistry before the market conforms to 1-2 cost effective chemistry type. (Akin NCM NCA LFP LCO LMO LTO where are these chemistries now? or who is left standing now?) so i would not comment on Solid State Batteries as of now hard to see a path forward.

Lithium will surge ahead In My Opinion. Given the maturity in the lithium industry and continuing cost reduction via chemical conversion as well as battery manufacturing streamlining processes.

With the trade war on-going, China has only the NEV sector to save their economy now. The next big ticket item other than real estate is exporting vehicles. Buying an ICE or a BEV in many parts of the world now is not about going green anymore but more a choice of common sense and a cheaper + lower maintainence + low running cost (insanely cheaper if you have solar installations at home) and a futuristic driving experience.

Tony Seba's vision is coming true. In China and many parts in Asia AND Australia I think there will be 95% BEV sales penetration by 2035.

Also with the Elliot Wave pattern Lithium still has that last wave 5 to complete (if it stands that is)... * not a TA analyst please correct me if i am wrong!



AIMHO, DYOR, GLTAH.