I appreciate the chat, but some of us need a reality check! A bunch of us were dreaming big, predicting A$0.75 to A$1 by March 2025 or when the April 2025 report was supposed to blow our socks off. Spoiler alert: our crystal balls were more like snow globes—totally off the mark! And don’t get me started on the dreamers throwing around A$20B or A$10B market caps, A$10 minimums, or A$11 takeovers—they are already on my ignore list.
I’ve always been laser-focused on the scripts and # of patients, because that’s the real story. Fast-forwarding to Dec 2026 using a DCF model, even with low penetration, slower patient growth and a script refill rate dropping to 80–85% and then deriving the revenue . Using a DCF with a 12% discount rate and a terminal P/S of 4, the valuation range is A$2.05B–A$2.43B (details below). Factoring in 1,954.2M shares outstanding and a potential 2–3% dilution (2,012.8M shares), that’s A$1.02–A$1.11/share—still a significant upside , but not without risks.
The road ahead remains challenging. Botanix isn’t hiding anymore behind FDA, but sales and penetration need to improve for the share price to soar. One weak quarter, especially with rising costs, macro-economic and geo political situations, new sales hires who underperform, could drag us down quickly. Personally, I’m still targeting A$0.75 by year-end 2025, and the next quarter will be pivotal in proving whether this one-trick pony can deliver on the potential I invested heavily in.
Go team BOTANIX
Mr Market still likes the story line IMHO but not the type of romance we all anticipated
(20min delay)